The conventional framing is straightforward: Brent crude falls, Saudi Aramco stock falls, Vision 2030 spending contracts. The data from the past eighteen months suggests the relationship is structurally more complicated, and that complication is precisely where the analytical value lies for GCC investors.
The dollar and Federal Reserve policy set the floor for this conversation.
Global Macro Context First
The dollar and Federal Reserve policy set the floor for this conversation. A persistently strong dollar compresses oil revenues in local purchasing power terms for non-dollar buyers, softening Asian demand at the margin. China's post-reopening demand trajectory, which the IEA's most recent Oil Market Report characterized as moderating relative to 2023 expectations, has removed the demand tailwind that absorbed OPEC+ supply additions in prior years. Against that backdrop,